皇冠体育信用www.hg9988.vip)是一个开放皇冠网址即时比分、皇冠网址代理最新登录线路、皇冠网址会员最新登录线路、皇冠网址代理APP下载、皇冠网址会员APP下载、皇冠网址线路APP下载、皇冠网址电脑版下载、皇冠网址手机版下载、皇冠体育信用官方平台。

Careful navigation: A worker producing containers at a factory in Nantong, China. Economists are watching with an eagle eye how the government handles the coronavirus outbreaks and property market. — AFP

SHANGHAI: China’s economic outlook for the second half of this year will be determined by the government’s shaky control over coronavirus outbreaks and the property market.

Early signs look negative. Daily covid cases have risen to the highest level since May, leading to more local lockdowns.

In addition, a mortgage strike in dozens of cities is increasing households’ awareness of property developers’ inability to complete housing projects, potentially triggering a further downward spiral in the vast sector.

After growth almost ground to a halt in the second quarter, the bearish outlook has economists lowering their full-year forecasts closer to 3%, well below the government’s target of about 5.5%.

That is yet another drag for a world economy grappling with the fastest inflation in decades, war in Europe and the ongoing Covid pandemic, and comes as the International Monetary Fund is set to “substantially” cut its global economic growth outlook.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth of just 0.4% in the second quarter was the second lowest ever recorded. The biggest cause was lockdowns in dozens of cities in the spring to stop the spread of the omicron coronavirus variant.

,

新2正网代理开户www.hg108.vip)是一个开放皇冠正网即时比分、新2正网代理开户的平台。新2正网代理开户平台(www.hg108.vip)提供最新皇冠登录,皇冠APP下载包含新皇冠体育代理、会员APP,提供皇冠正网代理开户、皇冠正网会员开户业务。

,

“Nothing can be worse than the large-scale city lockdowns and the halt of economic activities,” said Gary Ng, economist at Natixis SA.

China is subject to a “Covid Business Cycle (CBC),” Nomura Holdings Inc economists argued in a recent note.

First, increasing cases trigger business closures. Once cases come down, government stimulus leads activity to rebound, possibly leading to a new surge in Covid cases.

With new variants such as BA.5 recently detected in several cities, the pace and length of lockdowns is deeply unpredictable.

“The duration and severity of CBCs appear quite random due to the uncertain nature of Covid-19,” the economists led by Lu Ting added. “We believe markets have become overly optimistic about growth” in the second half.

On the upside, Chinese local governments are increasingly adept at maintaining factory and freight transport activity through lockdowns.

President Xi Jinping has urged officials to stick with Covid-zero, but last week struck a more conciliatory tone, telling officials to “reduce inconvenience in people’s everyday life,” while enforcing the policy.

“I expect that the Chinese government will respond to a rise in Covid cases with narrower, localised lockdowns, rather than the city-wide lockdowns used in April and May, in order to avoid severe disruptions to the gradual economic recovery now underway,” Andy Rothman, an investment strategist at Matthews Asia, said in a note.

ag区块链百家乐声明:该文看法仅代表作者自己,与www.allbetgame.us无关。转载请注明:新2正网代理开户(www.hg108.vip):From property to lockdowns, what to watch in China’s second half
发布评论

分享到:

皇冠网址(www.hg8080.vip):67岁发哥跑10公里 蔡思贝完成半马
2 条回复
  1. 皇冠信用网app
    皇冠信用网app
    (2023-02-07 00:10:08) 1#

    这是《小尤物鱼》真人影戏宣布男女主以后两人的首次同框,虽然哈雷贝利是至心想为乔纳·豪尔-金庆生,然则两人同框以后效果却不咋样,两小我私人的岁数差虽然只有5岁,然则状态看起来更像一对父女。你会红的

  2. usdt支付接口
    usdt支付接口
    (2023-02-13 00:02:12) 2#

    U交所(www.9cx.net),全球頂尖的USDT場外擔保交易平臺。老读者赞一个

发表评论

◎欢迎参与讨论,请在这里发表您的看法、交流您的观点。